***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.2 19.2 0.0 48.1 51.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.9 19.1 0.2 54.5 54.9 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.3 19.6 0.2 55.6 55.1 17.4 18.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.1 17.4 0.5 60.4 58.9 12.3 13.5 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.7 17.2 0.3 55.2 55.7 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.7 15.4 0.4 59.3 58.1 12.9 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.8 19.2 0.1 50.2 53.0 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.1 15.1 0.3 60.0 57.3 8.5 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.8 17.2 0.3 54.0 56.2 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.0 15.9 0.4 58.6 57.5 14.8 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.6 16.9 0.4 57.4 57.8 14.5 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.8 15.9 0.3 57.4 56.2 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.4 14.8 0.1 52.0 52.3 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.3 17.2 0.3 58.1 54.7 15.6 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.0 17.0 18.9 0.7 65.7 62.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 16.2 0.4 57.4 58.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.7 19.0 0.3 55.2 57.0 15.6 16.6 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 15.2 0.4 60.3 58.1 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.8 19.2 0.3 57.1 56.2 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.2 12.8 0.3 58.1 56.2 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 18.6 0.2 52.2 53.3 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.2 18.8 0.1 51.4 53.5 14.6 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.5 19.3 0.5 60.1 58.3 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.3 17.2 0.5 62.3 58.9 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 17.8 0.1 52.6 52.9 14.3 16.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.8 14.8 0.2 54.5 54.1 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 18.5 0.1 50.8 53.1 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.0 18.0 0.7 64.3 62.0 13.6 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.3 14.5 0.3 57.8 55.9 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.0 19.3 0.1 50.7 52.9 14.8 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------