***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 20.0 0.5 64.7 59.2 15.5 16.8 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.2 19.8 0.7 66.1 62.6 15.2 16.4 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 19.3 19.5 20.3 0.6 65.5 62.3 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.9 15.2 17.9 0.8 70.0 65.5 12.8 14.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.7 18.2 0.6 62.2 62.1 13.8 14.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.3 15.8 0.6 67.5 63.4 12.9 13.5 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.2 20.0 0.6 63.7 61.5 15.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 10.4 10.6 15.9 0.8 69.6 65.3 8.7 9.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 17.0 17.1 18.3 0.7 68.2 63.8 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.8 17.1 16.8 0.7 69.3 65.0 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.5 18.0 0.6 64.3 63.4 15.0 15.4 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.6 16.9 0.6 65.6 62.9 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.0 16.1 0.2 59.0 56.1 14.6 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 17.6 17.9 18.2 0.8 69.5 65.6 15.8 16.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 18.1 18.1 19.7 0.9 74.2 68.3 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.5 17.1 17.2 0.5 64.3 61.6 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.2 19.8 1.0 73.1 67.5 16.4 16.7 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.3 16.0 0.6 67.5 63.4 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.3 20.0 0.8 67.9 64.4 15.7 16.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 11.4 11.7 13.9 0.6 68.6 63.7 9.6 10.5 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.9 19.6 0.5 64.5 60.8 15.1 15.8 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.9 19.8 0.8 68.5 64.8 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.9 20.3 1.1 73.1 69.2 15.0 16.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 17.2 17.4 18.1 0.7 69.4 64.4 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.0 19.0 0.5 64.9 60.1 14.9 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.8 15.3 0.0 52.6 52.0 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.8 17.0 19.4 0.5 66.6 59.9 15.1 16.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.9 18.6 0.9 73.0 67.4 14.3 14.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.6 15.3 0.7 68.7 64.1 12.9 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.1 20.0 0.5 62.6 60.1 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------