***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 15.8 16.1 19.8 0.5 56.8 56.8 15.4 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 16.2 16.2 19.8 0.8 62.2 61.7 15.4 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 17.6 18.3 20.1 0.7 60.1 60.1 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 13.4 13.7 17.9 0.9 62.9 63.9 12.8 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 14.9 15.0 18.3 0.6 60.1 59.8 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 13.8 14.5 15.7 0.6 63.4 62.3 13.0 13.6 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 16.1 16.5 19.9 0.7 58.9 58.8 15.6 16.0 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 9.0 9.4 15.8 0.8 64.2 64.9 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 15.7 16.5 18.8 0.9 64.8 66.2 15.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 48 52 100 16.1 16.4 17.0 0.9 66.4 67.8 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 15.5 16.1 18.3 0.8 63.9 63.5 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 13.8 14.3 16.9 0.7 61.6 61.4 12.5 13.7 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 15.0 15.3 17.0 0.6 60.5 62.0 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 16.5 16.9 18.6 1.0 66.1 67.7 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 18.1 18.6 20.4 1.2 73.1 72.6 15.9 16.8 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 15.9 16.6 17.7 0.7 61.5 62.5 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.1 19.9 1.2 70.4 69.0 15.9 16.6 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.9 16.3 0.9 63.4 65.8 12.7 14.5 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 16.1 16.4 20.0 0.9 63.5 63.7 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 10.6 10.9 14.2 0.8 65.1 65.6 9.2 10.5 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 15.7 16.2 19.8 0.7 61.4 61.2 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 16.0 16.2 20.1 1.0 65.4 67.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 16.0 16.2 20.3 1.3 71.7 71.0 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 16.4 16.7 18.6 0.9 64.1 66.6 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 15.8 15.8 19.0 0.5 56.4 56.0 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 97 3 100 14.8 15.2 15.6 0.2 56.2 55.4 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 15.5 15.8 19.3 0.5 57.2 56.8 14.1 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 15.0 15.5 18.7 1.0 66.8 67.3 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 13.2 13.8 15.5 0.9 66.2 66.8 12.4 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 16.2 16.5 19.9 0.6 58.8 58.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------