***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 24.2 28.0 32.4 67.7 39.9 36.5 21.2 43.2 49.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.9 38.7 36.9 84.0 50.5 44.9 24.0 38.7 67.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.1 30.5 33.8 72.4 41.3 38.3 23.2 46.9 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 23.9 32.0 27.7 63.4 35.2 33.1 30.7 42.2 56.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 15.5 22.5 24.7 59.7 34.4 31.4 20.6 27.7 36.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 22.1 31.2 30.6 63.6 33.8 32.2 30.4 36.8 52.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.3 36.2 35.1 77.9 45.2 41.7 25.8 37.4 48.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 34.3 46.5 32.2 65.8 35.7 33.9 45.7 60.6 78.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 18.4 24.1 25.6 57.5 32.0 30.3 24.4 31.4 50.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 30.2 32.4 31.5 60.5 32.6 31.3 32.8 51.7 74.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 22.4 21.0 25.5 62.3 34.3 32.5 20.1 39.5 47.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 19.5 25.9 26.8 67.9 37.9 34.7 24.5 34.3 59.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 16.0 28.2 23.6 61.2 36.2 31.9 25.7 33.5 36.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 32.2 42.8 40.3 70.5 36.6 35.8 39.3 57.7 82.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 14.3 16.5 23.6 61.2 39.5 34.2 15.3 23.6 36.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 15.2 26.8 24.2 62.7 34.9 32.3 23.5 32.3 38.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 31.0 41.0 34.4 78.0 47.1 41.8 32.9 44.9 65.9 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 26.2 28.8 37.3 64.2 33.7 32.5 28.6 40.2 70.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 56.8 48.1 37.8 84.4 50.0 45.0 28.3 48.1 69.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 28.9 37.8 39.6 69.6 37.0 34.9 33.8 51.1 58.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 27.4 28.9 27.5 61.9 34.1 33.0 28.8 43.4 64.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 28.2 42.6 36.6 79.5 48.8 42.8 32.6 45.1 58.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 51.6 36.1 37.3 79.8 45.3 42.3 26.1 41.3 52.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 29.3 35.4 35.6 67.3 35.7 34.6 34.4 51.2 68.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 28.4 33.4 31.8 64.1 36.5 33.6 32.7 43.1 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 18.6 26.1 22.3 65.2 39.9 35.6 24.5 30.0 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 24.0 31.2 34.7 68.0 39.1 35.9 26.9 38.7 53.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 16.6 20.9 25.6 63.4 38.4 33.8 17.0 24.1 36.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 45.1 52.3 39.8 67.4 35.5 33.9 49.9 65.9 82.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 19.8 29.5 36.7 81.1 47.4 43.2 18.2 31.6 55.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------