***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.6 9.0 10.1 99.1 64.9 50.2 0.3 1.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.4 7.5 11.7 121.7 72.2 53.9 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.4 7.4 10.4 103.4 65.8 51.3 0.1 1.3 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 6.3 10.5 106.9 67.4 45.4 0.2 0.9 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.0 1.7 9.4 100.2 67.2 46.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 0.2 4.6 10.4 97.7 65.7 43.1 0.0 0.6 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.3 5.9 10.9 113.6 69.3 52.4 0.8 2.1 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 12.1 10.8 98.9 64.6 47.6 1.6 6.6 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.0 8.9 87.7 62.0 48.4 0.0 0.2 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.5 10.9 91.9 61.2 48.8 0.0 0.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 1.9 2.4 9.8 109.6 69.7 47.9 0.0 0.2 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.1 5.0 9.7 112.4 70.5 46.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 0.0 2.7 9.1 105.2 69.3 43.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.4 15.0 119.5 68.5 51.7 0.7 6.4 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.1 1.7 8.2 101.3 70.0 46.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 0.1 2.3 9.6 113.5 70.7 45.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.3 7.4 11.8 127.4 73.4 52.3 0.7 2.8 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.7 7.0 12.4 94.3 61.1 48.5 0.1 1.5 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.6 8.0 12.3 126.8 72.6 55.1 0.5 2.0 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.3 9.4 12.4 97.9 62.4 47.5 1.6 4.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 0.7 3.8 9.3 90.9 63.5 48.1 0.0 1.4 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.9 8.0 12.9 131.0 71.5 53.6 0.9 1.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.4 10.9 12.8 133.0 72.7 55.3 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.8 12.1 102.4 64.5 50.5 0.6 3.0 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.7 11.0 99.8 63.0 49.2 0.1 0.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 0.0 4.1 7.6 109.6 73.2 45.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.5 10.9 99.8 64.0 50.3 0.8 6.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.3 3.6 9.6 107.9 69.2 45.6 0.1 0.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.3 12.8 97.7 62.9 48.3 0.7 6.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.3 5.8 11.1 113.7 67.8 53.3 0.1 1.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------