***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.8 8.3 4.4 48.6 54.1 38.0 0.0 5.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.9 13.5 5.7 66.1 57.9 41.1 2.2 4.8 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.8 11.5 5.2 60.6 57.4 33.3 0.9 5.5 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 2.4 10.2 2.8 40.7 51.8 31.0 4.5 10.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.1 10.0 3.8 59.1 56.5 31.1 1.3 7.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 2.4 10.2 4.7 52.2 54.5 32.9 2.7 8.6 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.9 5.7 65.3 58.6 41.0 2.3 5.1 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 4.6 16.5 4.9 60.7 55.5 30.1 9.4 15.3 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.5 13.8 4.5 59.6 54.8 31.8 4.9 11.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.6 13.7 5.1 58.4 53.6 31.7 9.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.3 14.2 3.9 64.7 58.2 33.6 4.1 11.6 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.3 11.0 4.1 63.0 59.3 31.8 1.9 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 1.1 5.4 3.6 50.1 56.2 36.9 1.6 4.8 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.0 13.0 6.0 59.3 51.3 35.5 5.4 12.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.2 7.3 2.3 34.6 50.5 32.6 1.6 7.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 1.8 9.4 3.1 49.5 55.2 35.3 2.4 7.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.0 5.0 56.0 53.4 39.5 2.4 6.9 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 4.3 13.1 5.8 57.0 51.9 32.4 5.1 12.7 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.9 6.9 5.5 64.7 57.8 40.4 2.3 4.9 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.9 6.1 58.8 51.1 35.8 3.7 6.9 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.6 11.6 4.2 56.3 53.3 32.3 2.1 9.1 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.7 7.3 4.8 51.3 51.0 37.0 4.1 7.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.5 6.5 5.2 62.0 57.5 37.9 0.9 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 4.6 16.6 5.6 59.3 53.9 31.5 5.7 12.1 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.5 13.0 3.8 43.6 52.1 34.3 1.6 12.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.9 3.6 60.4 60.3 40.3 0.4 5.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 1.9 6.9 4.2 43.2 51.8 35.1 1.3 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.1 4.6 2.5 39.5 51.4 30.6 1.1 4.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.1 17.1 6.0 55.7 50.1 32.5 5.8 17.1 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.1 7.1 5.7 65.4 59.8 39.7 3.5 5.7 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------