***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.5 4.6 5.1 48.2 50.2 33.7 1.5 4.3 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.3 12.4 5.6 52.6 50.7 33.3 0.8 11.1 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.0 6.1 5.7 51.1 48.5 34.1 1.1 6.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.4 2.8 4.2 41.6 46.4 33.7 0.7 5.6 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.7 4.2 42.6 45.7 33.0 0.1 4.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.4 3.3 5.9 48.5 43.8 31.2 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.0 10.9 5.9 55.4 53.5 34.6 0.4 10.2 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 2.3 5.1 5.4 47.7 44.0 30.2 2.6 7.3 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 1.3 4.4 3.8 37.2 42.0 27.4 0.3 5.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 2.1 5.6 5.1 43.1 42.4 29.5 1.5 7.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 0.7 0.5 4.4 41.9 40.5 31.3 0.2 2.0 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 1.1 3.1 4.6 48.6 45.3 30.4 1.1 4.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.2 4.2 45.2 45.7 33.9 0.3 4.0 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 1.5 3.7 5.4 40.0 41.8 31.8 1.2 4.3 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.5 1.4 4.7 47.5 50.8 36.8 0.0 1.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.6 36.6 40.7 28.8 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.2 8.2 5.8 54.1 49.6 35.0 2.9 8.3 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 1.8 6.3 5.9 42.9 40.1 27.1 4.1 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 1.9 5.3 5.2 48.8 49.2 33.0 1.2 6.1 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 2.4 6.3 7.4 53.3 43.3 31.8 4.5 9.4 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 0.9 0.5 4.1 39.8 41.7 29.0 0.3 3.2 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.9 3.9 5.3 45.6 46.1 33.8 1.5 5.1 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 1.2 3.0 4.9 43.6 45.6 33.0 0.4 4.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 2.7 9.4 5.6 44.0 44.2 29.7 1.9 11.4 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 0.8 1.8 5.6 48.5 46.8 35.9 0.1 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.0 5.9 5.4 56.7 45.9 33.6 1.3 7.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 1.3 2.4 5.9 49.6 46.3 32.7 0.7 4.1 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.6 4.3 45.2 50.2 33.9 0.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 2.3 4.4 7.1 47.4 39.0 30.1 2.9 9.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.3 5.1 5.9 56.5 54.3 34.9 1.5 4.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------