***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 6.3 3.1 12.9 71.1 51.6 47.5 0.2 2.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 7.7 8.9 13.9 92.2 61.4 53.9 1.4 5.6 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.1 12.5 74.2 54.2 48.6 0.3 4.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.7 4.6 10.2 60.7 46.5 42.9 0.8 5.0 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 6.9 3.3 7.3 46.3 45.9 41.6 0.1 4.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.8 4.6 9.6 59.3 47.7 43.1 0.9 5.4 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 9.9 10.0 12.6 78.4 56.3 49.9 2.1 8.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.4 13.1 11.2 60.7 48.6 43.7 3.7 13.2 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.9 1.1 8.4 50.6 45.4 41.4 0.0 1.6 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.4 6.7 10.4 53.3 45.9 41.5 0.7 7.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.0 3.8 7.4 47.9 50.2 43.0 0.6 3.6 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.5 5.2 8.4 57.0 50.4 43.7 0.1 4.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.3 4.6 6.7 49.7 47.6 41.6 0.8 5.6 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.6 9.9 13.9 66.8 51.5 47.2 1.7 9.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.0 5.6 8.4 60.3 52.8 46.3 0.8 4.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.3 3.6 7.9 56.1 50.7 44.7 0.7 3.5 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.3 12.9 11.9 78.0 56.6 51.0 4.1 8.3 20.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.3 5.3 13.3 62.8 45.9 43.1 1.7 7.4 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.0 14.8 93.5 61.5 53.9 1.7 6.7 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 12.5 10.3 13.8 68.3 49.8 45.5 4.0 10.4 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.6 6.4 9.9 60.2 48.8 43.6 0.6 6.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 14.0 21.0 13.6 89.2 62.4 53.7 4.4 10.2 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 9.5 12.0 14.4 82.5 58.6 51.4 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.5 7.6 12.4 65.0 48.7 45.7 0.7 8.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.9 10.2 11.4 62.4 50.4 45.1 0.1 10.1 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.6 7.9 5.7 48.6 50.5 43.5 1.5 7.9 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.1 3.9 13.8 74.0 53.6 48.3 1.7 3.6 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 9.0 5.1 9.2 59.2 49.5 44.3 2.7 5.6 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.7 14.5 14.0 69.3 49.5 45.5 10.0 14.6 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.6 13.9 86.1 59.0 52.0 4.3 5.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------