***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.4 31.6 2.3 83.5 77.6 28.5 29.5 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.6 31.2 1.8 78.0 71.9 28.1 29.2 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 30.2 30.5 31.7 2.2 82.4 76.3 28.2 29.3 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 23.8 25.7 30.4 3.2 90.9 86.7 21.8 22.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 31.3 32.5 30.6 2.8 88.0 83.2 29.0 29.5 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 29.9 30.3 27.2 1.8 81.9 76.3 27.2 28.9 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.4 31.2 1.9 79.3 73.6 28.1 29.0 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 19.0 19.3 28.3 2.5 85.3 80.3 17.3 18.1 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 30.8 31.8 31.2 3.0 88.0 84.3 28.4 29.0 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 30.8 31.2 29.3 2.7 85.8 81.6 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 30.9 32.0 30.6 2.9 88.0 83.9 28.4 29.1 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 30.3 30.7 29.8 2.7 87.0 82.5 28.1 28.7 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 31.2 31.6 29.4 2.3 84.9 80.2 28.3 30.1 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.1 29.6 2.1 81.8 75.5 27.8 28.9 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 31.7 32.7 31.8 3.2 92.7 88.1 29.6 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 32.1 33.0 30.2 2.8 88.3 84.0 29.2 30.7 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 29.8 30.0 30.8 1.7 75.9 71.4 27.5 28.4 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 29.5 30.1 28.2 2.3 83.3 78.0 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 29.8 30.3 31.3 1.9 78.7 73.1 27.7 28.5 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.7 25.6 1.9 80.8 75.1 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 30.5 31.5 31.5 2.5 85.5 79.8 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.4 30.3 1.4 72.5 68.4 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 30.0 30.7 31.6 2.4 82.3 77.7 28.0 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 29.9 30.9 29.9 2.2 82.9 77.3 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 30.8 31.9 30.6 2.6 86.3 80.7 28.5 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 30.8 31.3 29.2 2.3 86.6 81.3 28.0 29.8 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 30.2 31.3 30.9 2.3 85.1 78.7 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 31.7 32.8 30.8 3.0 91.1 86.4 29.3 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 24.8 25.5 27.0 2.0 81.1 75.3 22.0 23.6 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 30.2 30.7 31.3 1.9 79.1 73.3 28.1 29.1 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------