***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 31.9 31.3 30.8 1.8 68.0 66.2 29.0 30.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 30.3 30.9 30.2 1.2 64.8 61.7 28.5 30.0 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 31.3 31.5 30.9 1.7 66.7 64.7 28.2 30.4 31.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 24.8 25.2 29.8 2.6 77.2 72.4 21.8 23.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 32.3 32.7 29.7 2.2 74.6 69.5 28.7 31.0 32.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 30.9 30.9 26.8 1.8 71.0 66.8 28.1 29.8 30.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 30.8 30.4 30.3 1.3 64.7 62.6 28.4 29.9 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 20.0 20.4 27.7 2.0 71.4 67.4 16.7 18.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 31.3 31.8 29.8 2.2 73.8 69.1 28.2 29.9 31.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.4 28.4 2.1 71.4 67.7 27.4 30.0 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 31.9 32.2 29.5 2.3 74.1 69.7 28.1 31.0 31.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.2 29.1 2.1 72.6 68.2 27.7 29.9 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 32.4 32.9 28.3 1.8 69.8 66.3 28.9 30.9 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 30.4 30.9 28.3 1.3 64.8 62.2 27.8 30.1 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 32.1 32.5 30.6 2.7 77.0 73.5 29.0 30.4 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 33.0 33.6 29.3 2.3 74.7 69.7 29.6 31.4 33.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.5 29.8 1.1 63.2 61.0 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.4 27.4 1.7 68.9 64.8 27.0 28.8 30.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 30.1 30.6 30.3 1.3 65.0 62.2 27.6 29.9 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 26.5 26.7 24.9 1.5 67.5 63.8 23.1 24.9 26.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 31.6 31.6 30.4 1.9 69.3 67.1 27.9 30.5 31.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.6 29.4 0.9 63.1 60.0 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 30.3 30.8 30.4 1.5 66.2 63.6 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 30.7 31.0 28.7 1.6 67.3 64.1 27.1 29.7 30.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 31.3 31.8 29.6 2.1 71.7 68.7 28.2 30.1 31.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 32.2 32.6 28.7 2.0 72.5 68.4 28.0 30.9 31.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.0 30.0 1.9 69.2 67.1 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 32.2 32.6 30.0 2.5 75.8 72.2 28.9 30.9 32.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 25.7 26.2 26.2 1.4 66.6 62.9 22.4 24.2 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 30.5 30.8 30.4 1.4 65.3 62.7 28.2 30.2 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------