***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 31.0 31.9 32.7 3.1 83.9 75.3 28.4 29.2 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 30.4 31.2 32.4 2.8 81.1 72.6 28.1 28.9 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.4 33.0 3.2 84.3 75.4 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 23.6 26.2 31.7 3.8 89.3 81.7 20.8 21.3 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 31.2 33.0 31.7 3.5 86.9 79.0 28.5 29.4 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 29.5 30.1 27.9 2.2 82.0 72.5 27.2 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.7 32.3 2.8 81.6 73.0 28.0 28.9 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.7 20.3 29.6 3.2 86.1 77.1 16.5 17.3 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 30.5 32.2 32.0 3.7 88.2 79.3 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 30.1 31.5 30.5 3.5 87.1 78.2 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 30.9 32.6 31.4 3.5 87.3 79.0 28.3 28.8 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 29.9 31.7 31.0 3.3 86.1 77.6 27.5 28.3 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 31.3 31.9 29.8 2.7 82.8 74.5 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 30.2 31.2 30.8 3.1 83.8 75.2 27.8 28.5 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 31.3 33.1 32.3 3.6 90.7 82.1 28.9 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 31.8 33.5 30.9 3.3 86.9 78.4 29.4 30.2 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 29.8 30.8 32.0 2.7 81.1 71.8 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 28.7 30.7 29.7 3.3 85.3 76.5 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 30.1 31.0 32.6 2.9 82.3 73.6 27.1 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 25.1 26.0 26.8 2.6 81.9 73.5 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.5 32.5 3.3 85.3 76.9 27.7 29.3 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 30.5 31.4 31.7 2.6 78.5 71.0 27.9 29.1 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 30.3 31.5 32.7 3.2 84.8 75.8 27.6 28.4 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 30.1 31.3 31.0 3.2 85.6 76.1 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 30.9 32.3 31.5 3.4 86.4 77.5 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 30.7 32.0 30.2 2.8 84.3 76.2 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 30.5 31.3 31.9 3.2 84.6 75.9 27.6 28.8 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 31.2 32.7 31.7 3.6 89.0 80.9 28.6 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 24.6 25.7 28.3 2.9 83.0 74.2 22.1 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 30.3 31.0 32.5 2.9 81.7 73.3 27.8 28.8 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------