***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 32.4 33.1 32.7 3.2 86.2 79.9 28.4 30.0 31.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 31.2 31.7 32.4 2.8 82.8 76.6 28.5 29.2 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 31.8 32.4 32.9 3.2 85.0 78.9 28.2 29.3 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 24.9 26.2 31.2 4.1 92.3 85.7 21.9 23.6 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 32.3 33.7 31.7 3.7 89.3 82.8 28.4 30.6 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 30.5 30.7 27.9 2.4 81.3 76.2 28.2 29.5 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 31.4 32.1 32.4 2.9 84.6 77.7 27.8 29.5 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 19.6 20.6 29.3 3.4 86.3 80.6 17.8 18.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 32.1 32.9 32.4 4.0 89.5 84.0 28.8 30.2 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 31.4 32.4 30.4 3.7 87.5 81.8 28.2 30.0 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 31.9 32.6 31.8 3.8 90.5 83.0 28.2 30.0 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 30.9 31.4 30.8 3.6 88.8 82.0 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 31.7 32.6 30.5 3.1 86.2 80.0 29.1 30.5 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 31.2 32.9 31.1 3.3 85.9 79.4 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 32.2 34.2 32.9 4.0 93.6 86.8 29.7 31.0 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 32.8 33.6 31.2 3.6 90.0 82.9 28.9 31.2 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 30.6 31.1 32.0 2.8 82.8 76.3 27.7 29.0 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 30.3 31.1 29.4 3.4 84.7 79.9 27.0 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 31.2 31.9 32.6 3.0 84.0 77.6 27.5 28.8 31.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 26.2 26.9 26.8 2.9 83.6 78.0 24.1 25.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 32.0 32.9 32.8 3.5 87.0 80.9 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 31.3 31.8 31.6 2.5 81.7 74.4 27.7 29.4 31.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 31.6 32.5 33.0 3.7 87.3 81.1 28.0 29.0 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 31.1 31.8 31.2 3.3 84.9 79.8 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 32.3 33.0 31.7 3.4 86.6 81.4 29.2 30.3 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 31.1 32.0 30.1 3.2 86.5 80.9 28.7 30.1 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 31.5 32.9 32.0 3.2 86.7 80.4 28.3 29.6 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 32.0 33.6 31.7 3.9 92.1 85.2 29.4 31.2 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 25.8 26.2 28.2 3.0 83.3 77.9 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 31.6 32.5 32.5 2.9 83.5 77.3 27.7 29.2 31.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------