***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 28.9 29.9 30.3 1.0 62.2 61.2 27.6 28.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 28.8 28.7 29.7 0.3 55.0 53.9 27.7 28.6 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 29.0 29.9 30.2 0.9 60.6 59.3 27.0 28.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.7 24.7 28.8 2.2 74.5 73.9 20.0 23.3 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 31.5 31.0 29.4 1.8 68.6 68.5 27.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 28.7 30.0 26.2 0.9 64.8 62.7 26.2 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 28.3 28.7 29.8 0.5 58.2 56.3 27.5 27.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 18.0 19.2 26.7 1.2 64.0 63.6 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 31.1 30.8 30.4 2.0 70.9 70.9 27.2 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 29.5 30.5 27.8 1.5 65.7 65.3 26.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.4 29.9 1.9 70.0 70.2 26.7 29.4 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.2 28.5 1.8 68.8 69.0 26.3 28.6 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.4 31.6 29.1 1.6 69.9 69.4 27.3 29.8 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 28.8 28.9 28.4 0.6 58.2 57.0 26.6 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 32.1 32.5 31.6 2.4 80.6 78.4 27.7 31.0 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 32.6 32.1 29.5 2.0 72.3 72.4 27.6 31.1 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 28.7 28.7 29.2 0.2 56.6 53.7 27.4 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 28.4 28.9 26.3 0.9 58.5 59.2 26.0 28.2 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 28.4 28.4 29.8 0.5 55.9 55.5 27.4 28.2 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 24.1 24.3 24.0 0.5 56.1 56.3 22.0 23.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 29.4 30.3 30.5 1.3 65.4 63.7 27.0 29.0 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.0 28.7 28.6 -0.3 50.9 48.4 27.5 28.6 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 28.5 29.2 30.3 1.1 62.3 62.1 27.1 28.1 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 28.6 29.1 28.5 0.8 59.1 59.2 26.4 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 29.4 30.6 29.5 1.3 65.7 64.5 27.1 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 30.9 31.1 27.9 1.4 68.5 67.8 26.6 29.4 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 28.6 29.6 29.7 1.1 64.1 62.4 26.9 28.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 31.9 32.1 29.9 2.2 75.9 75.2 27.8 31.0 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 23.8 23.8 25.2 0.6 55.9 56.1 21.1 23.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 28.4 28.5 29.9 0.5 57.6 55.5 27.4 28.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------