***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.4 19.5 1.3 67.2 64.7 14.9 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.7 16.1 18.9 0.7 63.6 59.4 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.4 19.2 19.6 1.1 67.7 64.2 17.2 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.8 17.4 1.5 76.1 69.5 12.4 14.1 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 14.6 14.9 17.2 1.4 74.9 69.2 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.8 14.9 1.0 70.6 65.4 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.5 19.1 0.8 64.2 60.6 15.4 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.2 10.7 14.8 1.1 71.6 66.8 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 15.8 16.3 17.3 1.4 74.9 68.9 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.4 16.0 15.6 1.1 70.9 66.3 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.4 16.6 1.4 74.7 69.3 13.8 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.6 15.6 1.3 74.8 69.0 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.6 14.7 1.0 67.7 65.2 13.4 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.2 16.6 0.7 65.3 60.5 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.4 18.7 1.5 77.0 71.2 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.6 16.0 1.3 74.7 69.4 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.4 18.5 0.6 63.3 58.3 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.4 14.4 0.9 69.3 63.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.7 16.2 18.9 0.8 65.1 60.3 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.2 12.0 0.7 66.9 61.3 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.1 16.0 18.7 1.4 71.9 67.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.3 18.3 0.5 63.8 57.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.6 18.9 0.9 68.7 62.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.9 16.5 0.9 68.5 63.0 14.5 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.5 16.4 18.2 1.4 71.0 66.0 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.9 14.8 14.7 1.1 70.2 66.7 14.1 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 16.4 17.0 18.8 1.3 68.9 64.9 15.3 16.3 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.8 17.6 1.5 76.5 70.5 13.1 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.4 13.7 0.7 65.8 61.4 12.1 13.7 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.6 19.3 0.9 64.8 61.2 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------