***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.2 20.6 1.9 82.0 71.9 14.9 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.8 20.0 1.5 78.5 66.8 14.6 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.4 20.7 1.9 83.7 73.3 17.5 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.5 18.2 2.0 86.5 77.3 12.5 13.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.2 18.1 2.1 88.1 77.6 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.5 15.5 1.2 79.0 71.2 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.1 20.3 1.7 80.3 69.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.9 10.6 15.7 1.6 84.0 74.3 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.6 17.3 18.3 2.1 89.2 77.7 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 16.4 16.7 16.5 1.8 85.4 75.2 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 16.1 16.4 17.5 2.0 87.2 78.0 14.7 15.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 14.2 14.5 16.5 1.8 84.8 76.4 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 15.3 15.4 15.4 1.2 77.7 71.6 14.1 14.8 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.0 17.6 1.4 77.6 70.4 15.4 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.4 18.3 19.4 2.0 87.7 78.2 16.1 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 17.1 17.5 16.7 1.7 84.6 76.7 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.3 19.6 1.4 77.4 65.7 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.3 15.3 1.5 81.2 73.2 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.1 20.1 1.6 79.3 68.6 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.6 12.8 1.0 74.7 68.1 9.4 10.1 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 16.3 16.9 19.7 2.0 86.2 75.4 14.7 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.3 19.4 1.3 76.8 65.9 14.5 15.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.6 20.1 1.8 81.7 72.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.2 17.5 1.6 82.3 73.5 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.4 19.2 1.9 84.2 72.9 14.9 15.9 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.4 15.3 1.4 79.6 73.5 14.3 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 17.0 18.0 19.8 2.0 83.7 71.9 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.3 16.5 18.4 1.9 86.1 77.6 13.4 14.8 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.1 14.6 1.2 79.0 70.9 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.6 20.4 1.7 80.7 69.1 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------