***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 17.7 18.1 20.5 1.5 80.4 70.9 15.3 16.7 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.7 19.8 1.1 74.2 66.4 15.0 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 19.3 19.7 20.5 1.4 78.8 70.6 17.2 18.3 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.7 18.3 1.6 85.3 76.6 12.5 14.4 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 16.3 17.1 18.5 1.6 86.8 75.2 13.7 14.7 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.4 15.4 0.8 73.3 66.1 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.7 18.3 20.2 1.3 77.6 69.7 15.2 16.3 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 10.6 11.1 15.6 1.1 80.8 69.7 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 17.3 18.1 18.7 1.7 89.7 76.2 14.9 16.3 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.9 16.7 1.3 83.9 71.0 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.6 18.0 1.5 87.0 74.6 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.6 16.0 16.8 1.4 84.4 72.2 13.0 13.8 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.7 16.0 0.8 73.9 64.3 14.5 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.8 17.7 0.9 72.1 65.1 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 18.3 19.5 19.9 1.7 87.4 78.3 16.1 17.0 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 17.3 18.0 17.3 1.3 83.4 72.7 15.3 16.2 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.8 18.2 19.5 1.0 73.6 66.5 15.9 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.2 15.6 0.9 74.8 66.1 13.7 14.5 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.6 20.0 1.1 75.1 67.8 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.5 13.4 0.8 72.5 64.0 9.8 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.8 19.8 1.5 85.0 72.8 14.9 15.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 16.7 17.0 19.4 0.8 71.3 64.0 15.1 15.7 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.9 17.2 20.1 1.4 78.5 71.8 14.7 16.1 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.8 17.8 1.0 75.6 67.6 15.4 16.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.4 18.0 19.5 1.6 83.3 72.4 14.7 16.5 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.3 15.6 1.0 77.4 67.0 13.9 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 17.7 18.6 19.9 1.5 80.9 71.5 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.9 18.6 1.6 86.4 77.5 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.7 14.7 0.8 71.6 64.1 13.0 13.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.6 18.1 20.3 1.2 76.1 68.5 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------