***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.7 20.0 1.0 74.0 69.7 15.1 16.1 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.1 19.2 0.3 53.8 53.5 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.8 19.9 0.7 66.2 63.2 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.5 17.9 1.1 76.5 74.3 12.3 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.5 18.4 1.2 76.7 75.0 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 14.3 14.5 15.2 0.6 67.8 65.5 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.6 19.6 0.6 64.0 61.1 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 9.3 9.5 14.9 0.4 59.1 58.6 8.4 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.5 16.8 18.6 1.2 82.9 78.5 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 15.7 16.2 16.2 0.6 66.0 64.2 14.6 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.4 17.9 1.0 74.7 74.0 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.4 16.5 0.9 69.8 69.7 12.6 13.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 46 54 100 15.2 15.6 16.5 0.6 66.4 66.8 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.6 17.5 0.4 57.9 57.4 15.8 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 18.7 19.2 20.2 1.7 92.0 89.2 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.5 16.7 17.5 1.1 78.4 76.9 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 17.1 16.9 18.8 0.1 50.2 50.3 16.1 16.9 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.7 15.3 0.3 58.0 57.6 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.2 19.3 0.4 56.7 56.2 15.4 15.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 10.5 10.6 13.3 0.3 55.6 55.5 9.4 10.3 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.4 19.4 1.0 74.0 71.5 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.5 18.9 0.0 46.2 46.8 15.0 15.7 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.1 19.6 0.7 67.2 64.0 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.4 17.6 0.5 61.8 60.3 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.7 19.2 1.2 76.1 73.0 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.6 15.7 0.9 74.4 72.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.1 19.6 1.1 76.2 72.3 14.5 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.1 18.6 1.4 82.5 80.5 13.8 15.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.2 12.9 14.2 0.0 49.6 49.8 12.1 12.9 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.7 19.7 0.5 61.1 59.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------