***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 100.5 127.5 88.3 220.9 91.4 85.1 21.2 44.1 50.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 79.4 116.0 73.0 200.8 89.7 81.0 24.3 39.5 63.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 84.8 124.5 96.8 239.9 93.6 87.3 27.3 43.9 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 85.9 149.2 98.9 252.1 94.2 89.6 28.8 44.3 57.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 57.7 111.0 102.5 261.8 95.2 90.4 21.5 27.6 34.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 86.2 111.0 98.1 234.9 95.5 90.6 31.3 37.1 52.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 50.3 74.7 70.9 194.5 87.5 79.0 25.8 39.3 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 121.7 155.2 121.1 255.0 95.7 92.1 42.8 60.6 80.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 76.7 112.0 114.2 271.1 95.6 91.2 26.0 33.3 48.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 85.7 150.3 130.2 261.0 95.7 91.9 32.5 57.6 76.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 56.7 113.8 101.0 258.8 94.3 90.8 24.5 41.3 49.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 70.8 97.0 98.3 265.7 95.3 91.9 24.7 34.5 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 49.2 121.7 94.2 259.1 95.0 91.6 26.7 32.4 36.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 100.2 131.6 118.6 223.6 92.2 86.2 40.6 57.7 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 53.9 147.6 87.2 275.8 95.1 89.4 15.3 23.5 37.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 55.6 82.7 90.6 251.5 94.5 90.8 23.5 32.3 38.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 65.8 79.8 66.3 183.4 85.3 76.2 31.3 48.4 63.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 93.6 122.3 137.8 248.2 95.5 91.5 28.4 40.2 73.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 75.4 128.6 78.8 210.5 91.4 82.5 31.3 45.8 69.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 75.0 94.1 129.7 221.3 94.3 90.7 33.7 51.2 57.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 71.1 135.7 105.8 261.7 95.2 89.5 28.9 40.9 53.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 70.0 90.6 70.4 185.7 87.0 76.4 32.0 45.1 61.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 78.4 105.8 89.2 222.7 92.4 84.0 26.7 42.8 52.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 93.7 136.2 119.9 241.3 93.8 88.9 36.8 50.3 68.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 59.8 97.1 98.1 231.5 92.2 87.2 33.8 44.8 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 63.3 98.5 74.1 232.0 92.6 87.1 25.3 32.1 44.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 81.8 122.8 91.1 215.2 90.2 84.5 26.6 38.2 49.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 66.4 156.6 96.9 273.6 96.1 91.2 19.2 22.9 36.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 108.9 151.4 133.9 230.3 94.7 90.4 51.4 71.6 82.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 70.4 111.7 78.6 207.2 91.0 82.3 21.1 32.7 55.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------