***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 11.5 11.7 160.6 77.2 63.2 0.1 4.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.8 15.1 11.0 150.6 78.4 61.7 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.1 16.2 12.2 163.1 78.6 63.9 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 8.3 20.9 13.2 184.3 85.5 68.0 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 3.3 10.3 12.5 177.6 84.8 66.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 7.5 22.9 14.1 177.7 82.1 67.1 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 13.4 11.3 150.8 78.5 59.0 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 14.3 23.0 15.0 177.0 82.6 62.8 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.7 15.8 13.2 174.7 84.6 66.3 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.9 24.5 15.5 173.7 83.7 63.5 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 2.3 10.1 10.8 166.1 82.1 63.1 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.0 12.8 11.7 182.0 83.5 65.0 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 5.4 8.3 12.5 182.3 82.6 67.9 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 19.6 26.0 16.7 164.2 80.4 61.9 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 5.0 12.3 11.1 196.0 85.0 67.2 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 4.7 7.8 11.2 171.0 82.7 67.2 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.5 9.8 10.9 137.4 77.8 58.2 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.8 16.0 18.0 171.5 83.5 65.6 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 9.2 12.7 11.1 151.7 78.2 62.4 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 12.4 15.4 17.5 146.1 78.5 61.7 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.7 21.2 12.9 179.2 83.6 66.2 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.8 10.8 11.4 138.1 76.5 59.2 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 11.0 14.7 11.5 149.8 78.4 62.9 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 17.7 24.2 15.7 169.7 82.4 64.3 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 8.7 15.3 13.3 174.2 83.1 66.9 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.2 9.4 11.7 201.1 83.6 67.7 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.0 13.6 12.7 164.3 78.5 63.6 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 4.4 8.6 12.4 191.6 84.0 67.9 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 16.9 23.0 18.4 161.8 81.1 64.2 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.8 14.3 11.2 151.0 77.0 61.8 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------