***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 16.6 21.7 13.5 163.8 76.1 62.8 0.3 8.4 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 15.2 22.7 12.7 161.5 78.9 62.8 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 16.8 23.2 13.8 166.2 77.7 64.1 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 21.7 37.9 15.1 187.6 83.1 71.1 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.4 19.5 14.2 173.9 82.0 69.7 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 20.9 26.0 14.5 160.9 78.5 66.8 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.1 17.2 11.4 146.4 74.8 57.9 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 23.4 26.0 16.5 190.1 79.9 69.0 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 17.8 25.4 15.4 180.4 80.9 69.0 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 22.0 26.7 16.9 178.1 79.6 67.7 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 20.3 25.1 11.3 151.1 78.5 65.8 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 17.5 20.9 14.1 196.5 82.2 70.6 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 15.0 21.3 14.8 194.0 81.4 70.3 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.6 22.0 18.5 175.1 81.8 64.7 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 18.6 34.2 12.9 227.0 85.8 72.2 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 14.3 16.9 12.9 173.4 80.0 69.8 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.2 20.5 11.9 157.7 77.4 60.0 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 23.4 28.6 21.0 191.3 82.6 68.3 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 15.5 23.3 13.4 167.9 80.1 63.0 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 20.2 24.6 19.9 182.2 81.2 65.4 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.8 21.8 14.3 172.3 80.0 67.4 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.3 21.7 14.9 180.1 82.0 61.3 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 17.7 13.8 165.8 80.1 62.9 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 29.7 40.8 18.1 174.3 80.6 67.6 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 18.4 24.0 16.2 183.3 81.7 69.8 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 15.6 22.2 13.4 206.7 84.6 71.9 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.3 20.2 15.0 170.3 78.6 65.5 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.6 24.6 13.9 200.3 83.7 69.9 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 25.0 32.3 21.3 182.9 81.6 68.1 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.0 11.7 12.6 155.0 77.0 61.7 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------