***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 18.1 24.9 21.4 221.7 83.0 71.8 1.6 8.0 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 22.7 37.4 18.5 237.7 86.8 73.2 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 17.7 30.7 24.3 253.2 86.7 76.1 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 20.9 45.9 24.6 293.1 89.6 84.0 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 17.2 31.1 24.4 269.0 90.6 81.0 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 19.3 31.8 22.9 237.7 88.0 80.1 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 18.6 24.3 17.0 217.0 84.9 66.5 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 25.0 44.5 23.6 230.7 86.4 77.9 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 18.2 36.6 26.5 275.2 91.4 79.1 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 21.4 32.7 25.8 241.8 87.7 77.6 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 16.4 34.9 22.2 226.6 88.3 78.2 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 18.3 31.7 21.7 250.2 89.4 79.9 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 16.7 22.4 20.8 251.9 88.7 81.5 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 30.1 46.0 24.9 221.6 86.8 73.9 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 16.8 26.4 19.1 268.9 88.7 82.5 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 12.1 30.9 21.2 252.6 88.7 81.3 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 20.7 30.1 16.3 200.5 84.6 68.8 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 18.8 40.0 29.9 246.9 90.4 78.8 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 23.6 39.2 19.2 241.3 86.6 73.5 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 18.5 28.9 25.9 212.0 86.5 77.5 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 20.5 30.6 24.0 248.7 88.8 76.2 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.0 25.0 16.6 194.8 83.9 69.7 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 18.9 33.4 22.2 253.0 87.9 76.0 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 17.9 31.6 28.5 249.6 90.8 77.6 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 13.9 27.2 23.3 221.0 84.7 76.0 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 14.9 37.4 20.7 242.9 90.4 81.3 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.7 26.8 22.1 209.7 82.4 72.5 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 14.9 25.6 22.0 289.5 89.1 83.7 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 31.3 50.0 29.7 226.4 88.5 78.1 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.9 23.3 20.5 246.9 86.7 72.7 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------