***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 23.4 58.3 41.6 281.5 89.9 84.7 0.4 2.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 9.8 27.9 30.7 230.0 85.1 78.0 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 30.1 56.1 46.6 309.5 92.0 85.8 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 28.3 49.5 46.0 295.0 91.7 87.3 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 19.2 44.4 51.4 346.8 94.4 90.9 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 23.9 46.7 46.5 306.3 95.5 90.9 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 17.4 27.1 31.2 233.8 83.2 78.0 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 40.2 66.1 65.9 324.2 95.3 92.3 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 23.1 72.0 59.1 359.7 96.6 91.9 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 36.9 71.7 72.0 344.4 95.5 92.7 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 26.4 39.3 56.6 380.2 95.8 92.1 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 25.5 58.6 50.8 345.9 95.4 91.9 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 17.3 35.2 46.2 338.0 94.2 90.8 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 35.0 76.4 58.5 276.6 92.3 86.2 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 12.6 39.6 44.0 337.0 93.5 88.5 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 14.5 24.5 45.3 333.7 94.6 90.8 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 21.4 39.9 27.1 217.1 83.9 74.9 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 33.5 65.2 68.9 315.5 94.7 92.0 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 20.8 38.2 35.0 247.4 87.5 80.1 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 22.0 37.6 66.4 285.3 93.3 90.4 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 24.7 58.2 54.7 357.5 96.7 90.6 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 22.7 36.4 27.6 215.1 83.9 73.1 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 21.9 46.1 41.7 272.9 90.9 83.2 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 34.0 57.6 57.6 308.7 93.9 89.0 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 25.8 33.9 45.3 294.4 90.8 86.5 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 23.7 33.2 28.3 255.2 89.0 83.6 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 17.2 50.8 41.2 270.6 89.1 84.2 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 26.1 46.2 48.6 337.4 94.7 90.1 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 34.8 72.1 64.5 293.7 93.7 90.8 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 20.1 43.0 34.3 243.9 85.5 79.3 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------