***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 27.8 27.5 28.6 -1.6 24.6 26.2 28.6 29.5 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 28.1 28.0 29.0 -1.3 28.8 31.1 28.0 29.3 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 27.8 27.5 28.5 -1.8 22.8 24.6 28.1 29.4 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 20.5 20.3 25.8 -2.3 16.6 18.1 22.0 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 27.9 27.3 26.0 -2.6 12.2 14.8 29.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 26.6 26.4 23.7 -2.3 14.3 15.7 27.2 28.9 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 27.8 27.8 29.1 -1.1 30.1 33.3 28.0 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 16.2 15.9 24.0 -2.5 13.4 14.8 17.3 17.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 27.5 27.0 26.5 -2.4 13.4 16.6 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 27.0 26.5 24.8 -2.5 13.7 15.7 28.2 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 27.3 26.8 25.9 -2.6 12.6 14.8 28.4 29.1 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 26.8 26.3 25.2 -2.6 12.5 14.5 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 27.7 27.3 25.1 -2.7 11.4 13.7 28.5 30.0 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 27.2 27.3 26.6 -1.8 22.5 23.9 27.9 28.8 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 28.7 28.4 27.7 -1.8 20.0 23.0 29.5 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 28.4 28.1 25.6 -2.6 13.1 14.8 29.3 30.6 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.6 29.2 -0.8 35.4 38.0 27.5 28.4 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.3 -2.3 15.3 17.1 27.3 27.8 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 27.0 27.5 28.8 -1.5 27.9 29.1 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 22.1 21.8 21.9 -2.4 14.1 14.9 23.4 24.2 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 27.6 27.1 27.6 -2.3 14.8 18.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 28.0 27.9 29.1 -0.8 37.7 38.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 27.5 27.5 28.5 -1.7 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 26.8 26.6 26.3 -2.1 18.2 20.1 27.6 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 27.8 27.6 26.7 -2.1 17.8 19.9 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 27.7 27.4 25.2 -2.2 15.8 17.9 28.1 29.7 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 27.7 27.5 27.8 -1.6 23.6 25.9 27.7 28.9 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 28.4 28.2 26.3 -2.3 15.8 17.7 29.4 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 21.8 21.6 23.5 -2.3 14.7 17.1 22.1 23.6 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 27.6 27.5 28.9 -1.5 27.0 29.0 27.9 29.1 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------