***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 31.0 29.2 28.8 -1.3 35.5 37.0 28.8 30.6 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 30.5 28.7 29.1 -1.1 38.3 40.1 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.7 28.2 29.0 -1.4 34.8 36.6 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 20.4 21.2 26.5 -1.8 27.3 30.3 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 28.5 27.9 26.6 -2.0 25.6 29.5 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 26.9 27.3 24.2 -1.8 28.7 30.4 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 30.0 28.7 29.3 -0.9 39.9 41.7 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 16.1 15.6 24.9 -1.8 29.1 31.2 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 27.6 27.6 26.8 -1.9 26.1 30.6 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.2 25.5 -1.9 27.7 31.2 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 28.3 27.2 26.4 -1.9 27.9 30.9 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 27.3 27.2 26.2 -1.9 28.6 30.7 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 27.7 28.1 25.3 -2.1 25.0 27.8 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.8 27.9 26.6 -1.5 33.2 35.5 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 28.5 28.7 27.6 -1.6 28.0 32.2 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 28.5 28.6 26.1 -2.0 27.2 29.5 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.2 29.2 -0.7 40.2 43.2 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.5 25.1 -1.7 31.1 33.3 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.8 27.8 29.1 -1.2 36.9 39.0 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 22.3 22.0 22.6 -1.7 31.0 32.4 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 28.1 27.6 27.8 -1.8 29.0 31.7 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.2 29.1 -0.7 40.7 43.2 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 30.4 28.3 28.8 -1.2 36.1 38.1 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.0 26.6 -1.6 31.9 34.2 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 28.0 28.1 26.9 -1.8 27.9 31.8 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 27.6 28.0 26.3 -1.4 31.8 35.1 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 30.4 28.2 27.9 -1.3 33.8 36.4 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 28.1 27.9 26.7 -1.9 26.0 29.8 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.2 24.1 -1.6 32.4 34.0 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 30.3 28.2 29.1 -1.1 37.2 39.2 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------