***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.6 29.3 -0.9 38.9 38.8 28.1 28.9 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.8 29.6 -0.6 44.6 42.3 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.5 27.5 29.4 -1.0 37.3 37.7 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 19.8 20.2 27.0 -1.4 29.8 33.2 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 27.4 28.0 27.0 -1.7 26.8 30.7 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 26.3 26.3 24.7 -1.5 29.6 31.9 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.9 29.8 -0.5 46.5 44.7 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 16.0 16.1 25.3 -1.6 28.1 31.4 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 27.3 27.3 27.2 -1.6 27.7 31.6 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 27.2 27.0 25.9 -1.6 28.1 31.9 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 27.1 27.8 26.7 -1.6 27.3 31.2 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 26.4 26.9 26.4 -1.7 27.0 30.3 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 27.4 27.6 25.6 -2.0 25.8 27.8 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 27.3 27.6 27.1 -1.1 35.6 37.0 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 28.4 28.4 28.2 -1.0 33.0 37.5 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 27.9 28.4 26.4 -1.7 26.5 30.1 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.3 29.8 -0.2 49.2 46.8 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 26.2 26.6 25.5 -1.3 28.6 33.9 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.3 29.5 -0.8 42.6 40.6 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 22.1 22.6 23.0 -1.4 27.8 32.2 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 27.3 27.5 28.3 -1.5 29.6 33.1 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.7 29.7 -0.2 49.0 47.0 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.7 29.2 -0.9 40.0 38.9 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.8 27.1 27.1 -1.2 31.2 35.2 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 27.7 28.2 27.4 -1.4 31.3 33.9 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.6 28.1 26.7 -1.3 31.6 33.9 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.1 28.5 -0.9 38.3 38.9 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 28.0 27.9 27.3 -1.4 29.2 33.3 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 21.7 21.9 24.6 -1.3 30.5 34.4 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.6 29.5 -0.8 42.8 41.0 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------