***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 30.5 29.0 29.5 -1.1 39.1 38.7 28.8 30.0 31.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.0 29.9 -0.8 40.7 41.9 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 30.2 28.4 29.4 -1.4 36.0 36.1 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 21.2 21.4 26.3 -1.9 27.4 28.6 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 28.2 28.4 26.7 -2.2 24.6 26.2 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 26.4 26.5 24.1 -2.2 22.1 24.2 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 30.0 29.0 30.1 -0.5 43.4 44.7 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 16.0 16.6 24.4 -2.4 22.5 24.3 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 28.1 28.3 27.4 -2.0 28.1 28.6 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 27.2 28.3 25.4 -2.3 24.8 26.2 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 27.3 28.1 26.6 -2.4 24.6 25.2 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 26.4 27.4 25.6 -2.5 23.0 23.8 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 27.3 27.8 25.8 -2.4 22.3 23.2 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.7 28.1 27.6 -1.3 36.9 36.1 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.9 29.9 28.5 -1.4 31.5 32.7 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 28.4 28.5 26.1 -2.3 23.7 24.3 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 29.3 28.9 30.2 -0.1 49.1 48.8 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 26.5 26.8 24.9 -2.1 27.0 28.2 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.1 29.7 -1.0 38.9 39.4 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 22.1 22.5 22.5 -2.3 22.6 24.9 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.3 28.8 28.5 -1.8 31.1 31.1 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 29.4 28.7 30.2 -0.1 49.2 49.4 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.4 27.9 29.3 -1.2 38.4 38.0 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.3 27.8 27.2 -1.7 32.3 32.2 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.7 29.2 27.7 -1.6 32.4 33.1 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 27.4 27.8 25.5 -2.2 24.5 25.4 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 30.2 28.9 28.8 -1.0 39.7 39.5 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 28.8 29.3 26.9 -2.0 26.2 27.1 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 21.9 22.7 24.1 -2.0 27.1 28.4 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 30.0 28.7 29.8 -0.9 39.8 40.2 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------