***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 26.5 26.4 26.7 -3.2 16.3 17.3 27.1 28.0 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 26.3 26.4 27.3 -2.8 21.0 22.3 27.1 28.4 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 26.5 26.3 26.4 -3.6 16.1 16.2 26.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 19.3 18.7 23.3 -3.9 11.4 11.3 20.2 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 26.1 24.9 23.8 -4.3 9.6 10.0 27.4 29.7 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 25.1 24.3 21.7 -3.8 9.1 10.0 26.4 28.1 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 26.4 26.1 27.4 -2.6 22.6 23.9 27.0 28.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 15.1 14.2 21.4 -4.4 8.2 9.0 16.0 17.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 25.6 25.0 24.8 -4.1 11.7 11.2 27.1 29.3 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 25.3 24.7 22.5 -4.4 10.3 10.1 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 25.5 24.8 23.9 -4.5 8.9 9.5 26.8 29.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 24.8 24.1 22.6 -4.4 8.3 8.8 26.2 28.2 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 26.2 25.9 23.6 -4.2 10.1 10.6 27.6 29.8 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 25.7 25.5 25.0 -3.4 16.4 17.4 26.7 28.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 27.4 26.7 26.3 -3.3 12.0 13.5 28.0 30.5 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 26.7 26.3 23.6 -4.2 9.8 10.1 27.9 30.7 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 26.3 26.0 27.7 -2.0 26.1 29.0 26.7 27.8 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 24.6 24.2 21.6 -4.3 11.4 10.6 26.1 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 25.8 25.6 26.9 -3.1 18.5 19.9 26.7 28.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 20.6 19.6 19.6 -4.2 8.0 9.0 22.1 23.3 26.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 26.1 25.7 25.7 -4.0 12.4 12.1 27.0 29.3 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 26.5 26.4 27.6 -2.0 26.8 29.8 27.3 28.2 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 25.7 25.3 26.6 -3.3 17.3 18.8 26.6 27.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 25.4 25.0 24.4 -3.9 14.0 13.7 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 26.1 25.7 25.1 -3.7 12.1 13.3 26.9 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 26.0 25.5 22.5 -4.1 9.2 9.7 27.1 29.0 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 26.3 26.1 26.1 -3.2 15.3 17.0 26.4 27.9 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 27.2 26.3 24.3 -3.9 9.8 10.5 28.5 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 19.7 19.6 21.0 -4.2 11.3 10.9 21.4 23.2 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 26.2 26.1 27.0 -3.1 18.7 19.9 26.7 28.2 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------