***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.9 16.1 19.3 0.3 61.7 60.2 15.6 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 16.4 16.6 19.4 0.5 67.2 64.0 15.5 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.1 18.1 19.4 0.3 60.8 58.7 17.7 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.9 16.8 0.2 58.0 57.2 12.9 13.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 0.1 57.7 55.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 13.4 13.3 14.6 0.1 55.9 55.5 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.8 19.5 0.5 65.4 62.9 15.6 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 9.1 9.2 14.5 0.2 59.5 58.1 8.7 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.0 17.1 0.3 63.5 61.7 15.3 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.8 15.5 0.3 63.0 60.8 15.4 15.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 15.3 15.4 16.4 0.2 60.2 58.0 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 13.3 13.4 15.3 0.1 56.1 55.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.6 14.8 15.2 0.3 64.0 62.2 14.0 14.6 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 16.6 16.7 17.2 0.5 68.1 65.1 15.9 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 16.8 17.2 18.5 0.4 65.4 62.0 16.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 16.1 16.1 15.9 0.2 58.8 58.2 15.8 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.9 17.1 19.3 0.8 72.4 69.4 16.1 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.5 14.7 0.4 64.7 62.8 13.4 13.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.4 19.3 0.4 64.6 61.9 15.5 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 10.2 10.3 12.5 0.2 59.7 58.8 9.4 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.6 18.4 0.2 60.8 57.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 15.8 15.9 19.3 0.7 70.6 67.2 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.6 19.1 0.3 63.3 60.5 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.4 17.0 0.4 66.9 64.5 15.7 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.7 18.0 0.2 58.3 57.3 15.2 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.9 14.7 0.4 64.4 62.4 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.3 18.6 0.3 61.5 59.8 15.4 16.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.7 17.1 0.1 57.5 55.7 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.4 14.0 0.3 62.1 60.9 12.8 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.5 19.5 0.4 63.3 60.9 15.8 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------