***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.0 18.7 0.0 48.6 50.7 15.0 16.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.3 18.7 0.2 51.2 52.7 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.7 18.8 0.0 47.1 49.5 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.8 14.3 16.0 -0.2 46.0 46.8 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.8 15.8 -0.2 47.2 46.1 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.2 14.0 -0.3 44.2 45.7 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.9 18.8 0.1 49.0 52.1 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.5 13.8 -0.1 47.4 48.6 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 16.0 -0.2 48.1 47.4 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 14.6 -0.1 48.2 48.3 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.7 15.3 -0.2 48.3 46.9 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.0 14.5 -0.1 47.4 48.2 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.8 13.8 -0.2 46.7 47.1 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.6 16.1 -0.1 47.7 48.6 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.6 16.2 17.3 -0.3 45.3 46.5 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.7 14.7 -0.2 46.5 47.0 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 18.5 0.3 54.8 55.2 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.5 13.7 0.0 49.0 50.0 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.8 18.6 0.1 50.4 51.9 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.6 11.5 0.0 49.1 49.0 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.1 17.5 -0.2 46.3 47.5 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.8 18.4 0.3 55.0 55.0 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 18.3 0.0 48.9 50.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.4 15.8 0.0 47.8 49.5 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.5 17.1 -0.1 46.7 48.7 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.7 13.9 0.0 51.5 51.1 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.7 17.8 0.0 48.4 50.0 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.1 13.6 16.1 -0.4 43.8 44.9 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.9 13.1 -0.1 46.5 48.0 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 18.9 0.1 49.7 51.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------