***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 17.3 17.7 20.0 0.8 66.4 66.0 15.6 16.4 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.7 20.3 1.2 72.0 70.9 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 19.3 19.2 20.3 0.9 67.2 66.6 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 15.0 14.9 17.7 0.8 67.4 66.2 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 0.7 64.1 64.0 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 14.3 14.1 15.3 0.7 66.5 66.2 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.9 20.3 1.1 71.3 70.1 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.3 15.3 0.8 67.9 66.4 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.0 18.1 0.9 68.6 68.1 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.2 16.4 0.8 68.4 67.7 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.3 17.4 0.8 67.7 66.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 14.4 14.2 16.2 0.6 66.4 64.1 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.8 16.2 0.9 73.6 71.0 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 17.6 17.9 18.1 1.1 73.4 72.1 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 18.3 18.2 19.4 1.0 74.6 71.8 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 17.3 17.2 16.9 0.8 69.5 68.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 18.1 18.5 20.3 1.5 79.4 75.6 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 15.1 14.9 15.7 0.9 71.0 69.4 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.4 20.2 1.1 69.5 69.4 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.5 13.5 0.8 70.3 67.5 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 16.9 16.7 19.2 0.7 65.5 65.0 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 17.1 17.3 20.3 1.4 75.6 74.1 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.8 20.0 1.0 68.2 68.5 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 17.3 17.5 17.9 1.1 72.7 71.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.9 18.8 0.7 64.4 64.1 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.8 15.5 0.8 71.7 68.8 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 17.0 17.6 19.4 0.8 66.8 65.9 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 15.6 15.2 18.0 0.7 68.6 66.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.7 15.0 0.9 71.1 69.5 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.7 20.3 1.0 67.9 67.9 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------