***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 16.1 16.0 18.8 -0.3 49.6 48.2 15.4 16.1 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 -0.1 50.9 50.3 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 17.8 17.7 19.0 -0.3 48.7 47.5 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 13.4 13.0 16.6 -0.3 45.7 45.4 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 14.8 14.7 17.1 -0.3 47.8 46.8 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 13.4 13.2 14.4 -0.1 49.1 49.4 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 16.4 16.4 19.0 -0.2 50.7 49.9 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 9.2 8.8 14.3 -0.2 46.1 46.3 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 16.0 16.1 17.6 0.2 52.9 54.4 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 15.5 15.5 15.6 0.0 50.5 51.4 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 15.6 15.4 16.8 -0.1 48.9 49.0 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 14.0 13.5 15.2 -0.4 42.6 42.8 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 15.1 15.3 16.0 0.3 56.7 57.5 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 96 4 100 16.6 16.6 17.3 0.2 55.1 54.9 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 17.4 17.7 18.8 0.2 54.6 54.6 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 16.2 16.2 16.2 -0.1 48.6 48.8 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 17.0 17.2 19.0 0.2 55.8 55.1 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 14.3 14.3 14.9 -0.1 50.6 50.3 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 16.4 16.3 18.8 -0.2 49.6 48.9 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 10.4 10.1 12.7 -0.3 45.5 46.1 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 15.9 15.7 18.3 -0.2 48.0 48.6 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 15.8 15.9 19.0 0.0 54.1 53.1 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 97 3 100 15.5 15.5 18.7 -0.3 49.9 49.4 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 97 3 100 16.2 16.3 17.2 0.1 53.7 53.3 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 15.6 15.5 17.9 -0.4 46.7 46.2 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 14.7 14.7 14.7 0.0 51.4 51.4 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 15.7 15.6 18.3 -0.3 48.7 47.9 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 15.2 15.1 17.1 -0.2 45.9 45.9 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 13.1 12.9 14.0 -0.1 49.7 49.5 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 16.4 16.3 19.0 -0.3 49.2 47.5 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------