***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 63.5 176.9 82.7 75.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 79.9 116.1 70.0 197.2 89.7 80.4 24.3 39.5 63.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 78.8 124.3 70.9 202.1 89.7 80.5 27.3 43.9 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 70.9 86.0 56.1 144.2 76.8 66.8 28.8 44.3 57.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 47.2 61.8 60.6 158.6 78.8 70.3 21.5 27.6 34.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 47.7 55.6 56.7 114.3 68.0 57.6 31.3 37.1 52.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 50.6 73.6 65.7 181.1 86.0 77.8 25.8 39.3 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 106.9 128.4 72.1 175.3 85.4 75.1 42.8 60.6 80.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 65.9 84.3 65.7 171.8 81.4 73.2 26.0 33.3 48.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 79.5 93.5 74.4 169.8 82.9 74.2 32.5 57.6 76.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 51.4 62.2 55.3 161.2 80.5 70.1 24.5 41.3 49.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 59.8 78.1 55.6 171.6 83.7 72.1 24.7 34.5 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 43.1 47.5 52.3 137.7 77.5 65.0 26.7 32.4 36.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 97.3 131.6 85.1 199.8 92.3 83.4 40.6 57.7 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.8 44.6 46.4 133.3 74.2 61.4 15.3 23.5 37.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 47.1 55.5 50.2 139.0 77.4 65.1 23.5 32.3 38.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 65.8 81.1 67.5 189.5 86.1 78.1 31.3 48.4 63.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 81.8 108.4 85.8 171.9 85.4 77.3 28.4 40.2 73.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 76.2 130.8 72.7 208.4 92.2 82.1 31.3 45.8 69.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 70.0 87.7 88.2 167.4 86.0 77.3 33.7 51.2 57.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 64.8 82.5 63.2 181.1 83.3 75.4 28.9 40.9 53.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 72.0 94.9 71.4 200.6 90.3 80.3 32.0 45.1 61.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 77.2 110.4 76.1 220.1 93.8 84.1 26.7 42.8 52.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 88.5 119.7 81.3 191.3 89.6 80.2 36.8 50.3 68.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 55.2 61.2 63.4 151.4 77.1 69.5 33.8 44.8 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 53.7 66.2 47.2 155.5 82.4 68.2 25.3 32.1 44.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 69.9 87.3 64.9 157.3 77.9 71.1 26.6 38.2 49.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 31.6 64.8 49.4 133.2 74.8 63.0 19.2 22.9 36.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 103.0 121.9 86.4 170.9 86.0 78.4 51.4 71.6 82.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 69.9 110.1 69.9 195.4 89.4 80.2 21.1 32.7 55.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------