***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 5.1 89.1 68.0 49.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.6 10.1 5.4 90.7 67.7 45.6 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.7 10.6 4.9 80.1 66.7 46.8 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 0.6 6.5 4.0 75.8 68.1 45.3 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.5 2.1 4.4 78.8 65.8 46.2 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 0.5 1.8 5.4 60.4 54.2 40.9 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.8 6.3 5.5 92.7 67.2 46.6 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.1 14.2 5.6 80.4 65.3 45.1 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.4 7.8 4.6 74.8 64.5 47.3 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 14.1 5.5 73.3 62.9 45.5 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 0.5 3.8 4.1 78.7 64.1 45.5 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.9 4.6 4.2 83.5 66.8 45.3 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 0.5 1.7 4.4 68.5 59.4 43.2 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.8 16.8 5.5 71.4 62.6 43.5 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.2 3.4 3.2 70.7 66.2 44.1 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 0.2 2.6 4.1 71.2 61.9 43.3 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.3 6.2 5.6 101.8 68.3 47.1 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.3 6.5 69.7 60.0 44.3 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 7.1 5.1 85.9 66.5 44.8 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.8 7.4 73.8 56.9 43.3 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 11.4 4.4 77.5 66.0 48.7 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 1.1 8.4 5.4 95.8 67.4 44.4 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.4 9.3 4.8 79.3 62.6 45.5 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.7 5.7 71.6 62.3 45.0 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 0.8 7.3 4.9 74.5 66.8 46.8 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 0.3 3.7 3.5 72.2 65.1 41.3 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 9.3 5.3 80.4 65.9 47.3 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 0.8 4.5 3.8 72.6 66.2 44.0 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.2 6.7 71.0 58.4 44.0 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.5 12.5 5.4 89.2 68.3 46.0 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------