***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 81.5 64.4 46.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.4 12.7 6.8 81.2 63.2 45.2 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.6 14.6 6.4 86.0 61.1 45.5 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 11.4 5.7 58.9 58.2 41.7 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.8 5.9 62.0 61.9 44.0 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.7 14.6 9.6 88.1 62.4 45.9 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.9 6.5 72.3 59.2 42.2 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.5 21.5 7.6 83.8 63.9 46.5 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.0 14.1 6.2 66.7 62.5 43.5 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.7 15.1 7.5 73.7 61.8 45.5 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.4 18.3 5.4 68.1 63.4 45.3 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.9 5.8 87.3 66.6 47.1 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.7 7.5 94.7 65.0 46.8 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.5 7.9 82.0 58.0 42.8 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.6 4.2 52.6 59.2 38.5 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.9 6.3 79.0 64.7 45.7 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.9 6.9 74.0 60.1 44.0 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.0 9.6 81.1 61.3 45.9 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.2 11.3 6.7 86.0 63.1 46.0 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 15.2 11.6 92.4 62.9 45.8 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.7 11.8 5.9 73.8 62.0 45.2 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.6 7.0 76.2 59.0 44.0 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.8 12.8 6.6 88.6 61.6 45.8 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.6 19.2 7.9 83.0 59.6 45.8 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.2 13.7 7.4 72.4 59.3 43.7 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.9 5.9 100.2 67.1 45.1 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 10.0 7.5 76.0 60.7 44.2 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.8 5.2 59.2 60.1 40.3 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.2 10.4 85.0 60.2 45.4 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.3 6.7 83.6 62.3 45.5 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------