***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 126.2 75.8 61.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 19.9 12.1 125.9 73.0 57.5 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.1 19.5 10.7 119.2 74.4 58.1 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.2 14.1 9.4 112.1 71.9 55.7 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.1 16.8 9.9 118.1 73.9 59.0 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 13.5 14.6 117.2 69.8 59.3 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.5 22.1 12.4 130.2 72.5 59.8 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 23.5 12.1 129.2 73.9 60.2 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.6 21.4 11.4 131.9 78.1 63.0 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 19.5 23.7 12.8 131.8 75.9 62.5 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 13.6 18.8 8.9 125.8 75.2 61.5 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.2 14.0 8.9 124.1 74.2 59.0 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.8 13.5 10.5 115.1 70.8 60.5 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.8 23.9 13.4 128.8 73.4 56.8 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 9.5 7.9 107.8 73.3 56.0 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.7 10.8 9.5 117.5 72.9 60.1 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.6 26.9 13.2 147.4 75.8 58.3 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 16.7 21.3 15.4 134.6 75.9 63.2 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.3 25.5 11.7 124.2 73.3 56.6 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.9 17.3 140.1 73.6 64.5 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 18.2 25.6 10.4 128.8 76.4 62.6 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.0 18.3 13.0 143.2 77.1 54.5 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.3 15.7 11.5 124.1 73.0 56.0 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 20.4 13.2 128.2 76.3 59.7 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.0 16.0 12.5 122.3 73.7 60.8 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.2 7.2 105.0 71.1 55.8 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.4 24.7 13.8 133.3 76.0 62.4 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.6 13.6 8.8 113.0 72.8 55.4 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 28.4 31.6 16.1 138.9 74.3 64.0 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.0 20.2 11.7 120.1 73.3 57.7 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------