***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 40.3 310.3 90.9 86.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 11.0 56.2 45.8 393.3 95.5 90.7 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 30.7 61.3 48.9 389.0 95.1 89.5 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 25.5 45.1 37.0 238.7 89.1 79.3 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 16.3 39.5 40.5 274.7 90.8 82.8 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 18.0 22.2 27.1 156.8 75.7 66.6 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 19.5 49.8 41.3 350.0 93.0 89.2 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 36.9 57.0 46.8 295.7 90.0 84.2 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 19.8 46.1 43.4 308.2 92.6 84.5 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 33.2 54.2 48.7 293.4 90.5 84.6 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 22.0 28.7 37.0 262.3 86.6 81.2 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 21.2 48.9 36.7 274.6 88.0 81.4 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 13.6 23.6 29.9 204.4 81.7 74.3 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 36.1 91.6 58.2 393.0 96.3 92.0 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 11.2 16.0 31.1 209.1 85.8 72.2 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 11.3 20.7 30.2 211.9 83.2 75.8 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 26.0 60.8 41.7 355.6 94.8 89.2 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 31.3 57.7 54.3 311.9 93.2 87.4 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 23.5 86.5 49.1 420.1 96.1 91.5 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 20.9 37.0 51.9 292.7 91.8 85.9 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 22.5 49.1 42.5 323.5 94.6 86.0 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 29.2 63.2 46.1 390.9 95.5 90.7 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 24.9 91.0 53.3 448.9 97.0 92.5 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 33.5 65.1 54.6 364.2 95.3 89.7 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 24.6 32.7 38.7 256.7 88.6 82.5 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 19.1 31.1 30.6 238.1 86.6 75.2 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 16.9 49.0 38.3 263.2 88.8 83.2 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 21.8 39.0 31.6 206.8 85.6 74.3 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 32.7 68.5 53.1 307.3 93.4 87.6 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 23.1 59.4 46.1 385.8 95.2 90.2 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------