***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 28.6 -0.4 44.7 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.4 28.1 28.3 -0.8 34.6 38.8 28.0 29.3 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 28.3 28.1 28.3 -0.7 33.9 38.7 28.1 29.4 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.4 27.4 -0.3 44.9 46.2 22.0 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.6 29.2 27.1 -0.5 39.2 42.7 29.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.2 25.5 0.3 59.8 56.7 27.2 28.9 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.3 28.4 -0.5 39.5 42.8 28.0 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.9 17.4 25.0 -0.7 36.2 39.1 17.3 17.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.8 27.3 -0.6 38.1 41.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.3 25.7 -0.7 36.2 39.6 28.2 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 28.1 28.9 26.7 -0.3 43.0 45.4 28.4 29.1 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.4 26.4 -0.4 39.4 43.8 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.0 26.4 -0.1 48.1 50.3 28.5 30.0 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.7 26.0 -1.2 25.2 30.0 27.9 28.8 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.6 30.4 28.7 0.2 55.2 55.3 29.5 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.9 30.4 26.8 -0.1 47.2 49.4 29.3 30.6 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.5 27.6 27.9 -0.7 35.4 39.3 27.5 28.4 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 26.9 27.2 24.5 -0.9 30.3 35.5 27.3 27.8 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.7 28.2 -0.9 32.9 37.2 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 22.7 23.0 22.5 -0.9 29.1 34.6 23.4 24.2 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.3 28.0 -0.7 35.3 40.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 28.0 27.8 27.7 -1.0 31.1 35.3 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 27.7 27.9 27.8 -0.9 31.0 35.8 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.5 26.2 -1.0 29.4 34.5 27.6 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.8 29.2 27.4 -0.3 45.3 44.9 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.2 26.3 -0.3 39.9 46.3 28.1 29.7 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.9 27.9 -0.3 46.6 45.5 27.7 28.9 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 30.5 29.9 27.9 -0.1 46.7 49.6 29.4 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 22.4 22.0 23.5 -1.0 28.8 33.9 22.1 23.6 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.2 28.5 -0.7 35.9 39.9 27.9 29.1 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------