***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 29.0 0.0 47.5 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.1 28.8 -0.1 48.7 48.9 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.5 28.9 -0.2 47.8 48.1 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.6 27.8 -0.1 44.7 49.1 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.2 27.5 -0.1 44.5 48.8 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.3 25.6 0.2 51.5 52.8 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.1 28.8 0.0 50.2 50.5 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 16.3 17.1 25.6 -0.3 47.3 47.1 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.5 27.6 -0.1 45.2 48.9 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.4 26.2 -0.2 47.0 47.8 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.7 27.1 0.0 50.2 50.6 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.0 26.9 -0.2 49.7 48.9 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.1 26.5 0.0 50.7 50.5 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.0 26.7 -0.4 44.8 45.2 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.0 28.7 0.2 50.8 53.3 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.4 29.9 27.1 0.0 50.6 51.1 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.5 28.5 0.0 51.4 49.8 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.5 25.1 -0.3 46.1 46.7 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.5 28.8 -0.2 47.7 48.0 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.2 23.1 -0.4 46.9 46.2 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.8 28.4 -0.2 45.8 48.1 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 27.5 29.0 28.3 -0.1 50.2 47.8 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.4 28.4 -0.2 47.2 47.4 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.0 26.8 -0.3 45.8 46.8 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.0 27.7 0.0 47.0 50.3 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.9 26.6 -0.2 45.2 48.1 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.4 28.2 0.0 47.6 50.5 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.7 28.1 -0.1 47.2 50.2 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.8 24.1 -0.4 45.9 46.4 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.7 29.0 -0.1 48.2 48.7 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------