***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 27.7 -1.6 31.4 33.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 27.7 27.3 27.4 -2.0 25.5 30.1 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.6 28.3 27.6 -1.8 29.4 31.7 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 21.4 22.0 26.7 -1.4 34.4 34.9 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.6 29.2 26.3 -1.5 33.9 34.3 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 29.8 28.8 25.0 -0.5 45.0 45.9 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 27.4 27.1 27.4 -1.8 26.2 31.2 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.1 17.9 24.6 -1.4 34.1 35.7 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 28.2 29.1 26.4 -1.6 34.1 33.9 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.8 28.7 25.1 -1.5 33.8 34.3 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.7 28.9 26.0 -1.2 38.6 37.6 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.7 25.9 -1.1 38.7 38.7 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.9 30.1 25.7 -0.8 40.1 41.7 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 27.5 27.4 25.5 -2.0 26.8 29.3 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 28.9 30.6 27.7 -1.0 38.6 39.9 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 31.5 30.3 26.1 -1.0 40.5 40.0 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 27.3 26.6 27.1 -2.0 25.1 30.0 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.9 24.1 -1.6 29.4 33.4 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.4 -2.0 25.8 29.8 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.7 24.1 22.2 -1.5 31.4 33.8 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 28.1 28.9 27.2 -1.7 32.4 32.7 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 27.6 27.2 26.9 -2.1 24.6 29.0 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 27.3 27.5 27.1 -2.0 26.5 30.0 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 27.1 27.6 25.7 -1.8 28.4 32.0 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 28.2 29.2 26.5 -1.5 33.3 34.3 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 28.2 29.0 25.9 -0.9 34.2 39.7 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 27.6 28.4 26.9 -1.5 32.4 33.6 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 29.1 30.3 27.1 -1.2 36.4 37.3 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 22.1 22.8 23.1 -1.6 28.9 33.2 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 27.3 27.6 27.6 -1.9 27.1 30.9 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------