***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 27.8 -1.1 42.7 39.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.0 27.0 -2.1 31.3 30.9 27.1 28.4 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 27.1 26.5 26.9 -2.1 29.6 30.8 26.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.7 26.4 -0.6 49.2 44.4 20.2 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 27.6 27.6 26.1 -1.4 37.9 37.1 27.4 29.7 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 28.8 29.0 25.1 0.2 56.8 53.2 26.4 28.1 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.9 27.2 27.5 -1.4 39.2 36.8 27.0 28.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 15.7 16.0 23.3 -2.1 29.8 31.4 16.0 17.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.1 26.5 -1.7 33.9 34.4 27.1 29.3 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 26.5 26.6 24.2 -2.0 29.8 31.9 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 26.9 27.2 25.7 -1.4 37.5 37.4 26.8 29.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 26.0 26.3 24.9 -1.6 36.1 36.0 26.2 28.2 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 27.8 29.6 25.9 -0.6 48.1 45.6 27.6 29.8 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 26.1 25.3 24.2 -3.2 15.3 20.2 26.7 28.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.0 30.8 29.2 0.3 60.3 55.0 28.0 30.5 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 28.5 30.4 26.2 -0.7 47.6 44.1 27.9 30.7 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.5 26.6 26.8 -1.9 32.5 31.6 26.7 27.8 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 25.7 25.5 22.6 -2.6 25.3 26.5 26.1 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.4 26.4 26.7 -2.3 28.4 28.0 26.7 28.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 21.4 21.3 20.6 -2.6 25.2 26.4 22.1 23.3 26.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.2 27.0 27.0 -1.9 32.0 32.9 27.0 29.3 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 26.3 26.1 26.1 -2.6 23.8 24.7 27.3 28.2 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 26.1 26.4 26.2 -2.6 25.7 25.5 26.6 27.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 26.3 25.5 24.5 -2.7 22.2 25.1 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.8 -1.0 43.7 40.7 26.9 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 27.3 28.4 25.3 -0.9 42.5 42.4 27.1 29.0 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.4 27.4 -0.9 45.9 41.3 26.4 27.9 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.6 30.6 27.5 -0.3 53.2 48.0 28.5 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 20.8 20.7 21.6 -2.8 23.0 25.3 21.4 23.2 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 26.8 26.7 27.3 -1.9 33.4 32.5 26.7 28.2 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------