***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 18.4 -0.1 44.6 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.6 18.2 -0.4 35.2 39.9 15.5 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.8 18.1 -0.3 38.8 41.8 17.7 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.4 16.7 0.0 49.1 49.1 12.9 13.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.2 16.4 -0.1 46.7 46.9 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.8 13.6 15.0 0.4 65.4 61.0 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.5 15.8 18.3 -0.3 37.0 41.5 15.6 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 14.3 -0.2 42.5 42.8 8.7 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.7 16.8 0.0 48.8 48.2 15.3 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 15.0 -0.2 44.3 44.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.2 16.0 0.0 53.2 50.8 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 15.3 -0.1 50.5 48.1 12.9 13.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.8 15.1 0.2 62.8 56.5 14.0 14.6 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 15.6 15.7 16.1 -0.6 26.8 32.0 15.9 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.2 18.1 0.5 66.5 61.5 16.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.2 15.8 0.2 60.6 56.0 15.8 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.9 16.1 17.8 -0.3 35.2 40.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.4 14.0 -0.4 34.9 38.9 13.4 13.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 15.4 15.5 18.0 -0.4 34.8 39.4 15.5 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.4 9.4 12.3 -0.4 31.8 37.1 9.4 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.4 17.6 -0.2 44.7 44.6 15.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.0 17.6 -0.5 33.2 36.9 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.9 15.0 17.7 -0.5 33.5 38.1 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.5 15.8 16.0 -0.4 34.8 37.6 15.7 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 17.1 0.0 48.4 49.2 15.2 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.9 14.9 0.0 57.9 51.9 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 17.8 0.0 46.2 49.0 15.4 16.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.7 17.3 0.1 56.9 53.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.6 12.9 13.4 -0.4 33.5 37.4 12.8 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.6 15.8 18.4 -0.4 36.9 40.8 15.8 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------