***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 17.9 -0.7 38.6 40.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.1 17.8 -0.8 37.1 39.1 14.6 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.7 17.7 -0.8 37.8 39.3 17.4 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.6 16.1 -0.8 29.9 36.8 12.7 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 13.1 14.0 15.8 -0.7 32.4 38.4 14.0 14.5 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.5 14.5 -0.2 43.5 44.9 13.1 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.4 17.9 -0.8 37.1 38.7 15.1 16.0 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.6 14.0 -0.6 34.5 38.8 8.6 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.6 16.1 -0.6 35.7 40.2 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.7 15.5 14.5 -0.7 35.2 39.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 14.4 15.1 15.5 -0.5 38.0 41.3 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 12.8 13.1 14.9 -0.6 35.4 39.6 12.9 13.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.6 14.4 -0.5 37.4 40.5 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.5 15.6 15.8 -0.9 30.3 35.5 15.7 16.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.9 16.4 17.1 -0.5 37.3 41.4 16.2 16.8 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 15.3 16.1 15.2 -0.5 38.8 40.8 15.4 16.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.2 17.5 -0.6 39.4 41.0 15.3 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.3 13.3 13.7 -0.8 32.6 37.0 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 17.7 -0.8 36.7 39.0 15.3 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 9.1 9.4 12.2 -0.7 31.0 37.1 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.2 17.1 -0.7 38.2 39.8 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.8 17.3 -0.7 37.3 39.9 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.5 17.4 -0.8 37.3 38.2 14.3 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.9 15.6 -0.8 34.5 37.1 15.8 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.1 16.4 -0.7 37.8 39.3 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.3 14.5 -0.6 31.9 38.3 14.3 15.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.6 14.8 17.1 -0.7 37.7 39.6 14.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.5 -0.7 33.3 38.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.4 13.2 -0.7 33.6 38.0 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.5 17.9 -0.8 37.6 38.9 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------