***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 -1.0 28.6 35.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 14.7 14.4 17.5 -1.3 26.2 30.3 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 17.1 17.2 17.6 -1.1 28.1 32.9 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 12.8 12.4 16.2 -0.9 27.9 35.1 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.6 13.9 15.9 -0.9 28.6 35.1 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.3 14.5 -0.5 40.7 42.5 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 15.2 14.8 17.6 -1.2 25.1 31.2 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.7 8.5 13.9 -1.0 31.7 34.9 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.9 14.9 16.2 -0.9 28.6 35.6 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 14.8 14.9 14.5 -1.0 28.8 34.2 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.0 15.5 -0.7 34.4 38.4 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.2 14.9 -0.8 33.9 38.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.3 14.6 -0.6 37.7 41.1 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 15.3 15.1 15.6 -1.4 22.2 27.6 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.7 16.7 17.3 -0.5 41.6 41.4 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.3 15.4 15.3 -0.6 35.5 40.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 15.8 15.4 17.1 -1.3 23.7 30.3 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 13.0 12.8 13.6 -1.2 26.8 31.0 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 15.1 14.9 17.4 -1.3 26.4 30.4 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.1 12.0 -1.2 27.4 31.8 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 14.8 14.8 17.1 -1.0 29.2 34.6 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 14.5 14.2 17.0 -1.4 23.1 28.8 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 14.7 14.5 17.1 -1.3 24.7 30.0 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 15.4 15.0 15.5 -1.2 25.3 30.7 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 14.8 14.9 16.4 -0.8 28.7 36.7 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.1 14.7 -0.5 38.9 42.0 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 14.4 14.4 17.0 -0.9 28.2 35.7 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 13.7 14.6 16.6 -0.8 31.0 36.9 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.6 12.6 13.0 -1.2 27.2 30.4 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 15.2 14.9 17.7 -1.3 27.4 31.2 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------