***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 0.0 19.4 0.6 64.0 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 16.3 16.2 18.8 0.0 51.7 51.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.1 18.8 0.0 55.0 51.4 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 13.5 14.5 17.9 0.9 65.8 65.7 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.0 17.5 0.5 61.9 59.9 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.5 16.0 1.2 77.0 73.0 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 16.5 16.4 19.1 0.2 53.7 53.9 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.3 14.6 -0.1 52.5 50.2 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.4 18.0 0.6 65.9 61.3 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.9 15.7 0.2 58.1 54.1 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.2 16.9 0.5 62.2 59.2 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 15.7 0.3 59.9 56.2 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.6 16.2 0.9 74.7 68.4 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.7 15.9 16.5 -0.7 37.0 39.5 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 18.1 18.6 20.2 1.8 88.8 78.6 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.6 17.0 0.9 72.5 67.8 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 17.0 16.9 18.5 0.0 49.3 50.9 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.3 14.4 -0.1 50.8 48.8 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.4 18.6 -0.1 51.9 49.8 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.1 12.1 -0.3 44.5 45.1 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.1 18.7 0.2 60.6 55.3 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.9 15.6 18.1 -0.4 43.5 44.9 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.4 18.3 -0.2 48.6 48.0 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.1 16.5 -0.3 46.7 45.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.7 16.4 18.7 0.8 67.6 63.0 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.2 15.5 0.6 70.6 63.9 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.2 19.1 0.9 66.1 63.4 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.7 18.7 1.1 73.7 69.4 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.7 13.5 -0.3 44.8 44.6 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 16.5 16.5 19.0 0.0 54.8 52.1 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------