***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 24.4 33.1 30.9 69.5 44.1 40.0 23.8 41.6 51.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 25.6 38.5 30.8 73.4 47.6 41.6 24.1 40.1 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 53.2 38.0 31.5 70.5 45.7 40.6 28.1 40.8 68.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 29.0 43.0 29.9 67.9 45.5 38.3 29.4 44.3 55.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 19.2 26.3 29.6 70.3 47.0 39.5 21.8 27.1 38.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 24.1 35.9 34.7 72.6 45.0 38.1 28.9 39.0 62.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 25.7 37.6 30.0 70.9 45.7 39.9 22.7 39.5 49.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 37.8 57.4 35.4 70.4 42.2 39.4 46.4 59.2 86.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 25.7 33.2 31.4 69.9 45.5 39.6 25.6 41.6 47.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 35.3 51.0 37.2 71.0 44.2 39.5 38.3 55.2 75.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 25.4 36.1 27.5 68.8 44.8 39.3 24.3 42.0 50.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 23.0 30.7 27.1 69.9 43.3 39.7 23.7 37.6 60.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 16.5 30.6 28.0 71.2 45.8 39.3 22.4 32.5 37.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 68.9 58.5 48.7 84.9 51.9 45.5 40.6 58.0 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.9 23.5 23.9 62.8 46.2 38.2 16.1 25.3 39.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 17.1 28.3 26.9 68.9 45.1 38.4 21.5 32.3 38.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 29.3 43.7 33.4 77.2 48.3 42.5 28.4 45.0 62.6 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 31.5 40.5 47.1 79.0 47.2 42.2 30.6 43.0 73.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.7 46.9 32.8 76.7 49.2 43.0 32.9 47.3 73.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 33.3 42.0 47.1 77.9 43.6 41.0 33.6 50.2 61.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 31.5 39.6 30.2 68.0 43.4 39.6 29.9 45.0 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 28.1 40.9 37.1 81.5 49.6 43.8 30.6 41.0 61.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 30.8 45.4 36.3 81.4 52.6 44.8 26.7 42.7 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 66.7 56.4 43.6 81.7 49.8 44.6 38.7 57.0 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 31.2 38.2 33.3 71.0 43.7 40.5 34.1 46.1 55.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 17.3 29.0 22.5 67.4 44.3 37.4 25.3 31.5 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.5 34.3 33.5 71.5 44.1 40.6 27.9 36.5 48.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 16.9 22.5 26.9 64.7 45.9 37.8 17.2 22.9 43.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 51.5 64.0 49.2 79.0 45.4 42.0 51.4 69.3 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.9 30.7 30.7 72.0 45.7 40.8 21.3 32.7 55.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------