***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.2 10.4 8.0 101.2 68.7 49.0 0.3 2.8 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.1 13.9 9.7 131.6 73.8 51.0 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.3 10.3 8.4 107.8 69.6 49.7 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.6 4.8 6.8 83.8 64.4 45.7 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 0.5 2.8 6.6 89.8 65.9 45.8 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 0.6 3.5 8.3 83.6 62.5 45.1 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.9 9.2 9.5 127.7 72.5 50.3 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.8 9.5 98.5 63.9 47.1 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.3 6.2 7.0 86.4 63.3 45.3 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 14.1 9.3 92.5 63.0 46.5 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 3.6 4.8 6.8 98.9 65.9 46.8 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 0.4 4.4 7.4 102.0 65.8 47.0 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 0.4 3.6 7.4 93.9 65.4 46.2 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.6 13.9 12.7 110.4 69.2 49.2 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.7 5.4 5.6 84.5 69.1 47.4 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.6 7.0 95.2 66.3 46.5 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.7 10.8 10.4 132.9 75.8 50.6 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 11.6 12.3 100.3 65.1 50.1 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.4 8.3 9.5 127.1 73.0 51.2 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 8.1 13.4 100.6 62.0 49.6 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.0 11.2 7.3 94.3 67.8 46.6 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 0.7 8.6 10.3 117.2 72.8 51.3 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.4 11.5 10.0 125.4 73.4 50.6 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.7 15.3 11.3 112.3 70.3 51.4 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.1 8.4 7.5 87.3 65.9 46.6 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.9 5.8 89.9 67.9 46.3 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.4 8.2 95.5 66.4 48.0 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.1 4.6 6.5 83.7 66.0 46.5 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.7 13.1 98.1 63.4 49.4 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.2 12.5 9.3 123.4 72.0 50.0 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------