***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.2 13.0 7.8 89.7 65.6 54.9 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.6 8.0 94.8 69.0 56.6 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.6 18.8 8.2 93.1 66.2 52.1 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.0 22.6 8.6 93.4 67.1 53.1 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.4 14.9 7.9 97.1 67.0 54.8 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.2 10.5 104.1 66.4 50.0 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.0 13.4 7.8 91.4 67.1 56.4 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.7 20.6 9.9 110.2 67.8 55.9 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.9 15.4 8.2 95.3 65.5 52.3 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.6 19.5 10.5 109.5 68.0 54.8 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.6 20.8 7.0 100.3 67.1 55.9 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 16.7 7.2 101.9 67.6 55.2 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.4 12.9 7.7 99.4 68.3 54.8 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.8 15.5 132.1 70.8 57.2 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.3 18.3 6.6 92.3 70.1 53.5 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.7 13.6 7.0 93.7 66.1 55.5 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.6 17.5 8.6 96.2 69.0 56.8 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 15.8 14.7 123.1 68.9 57.4 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 18.9 9.1 107.1 70.3 57.5 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.5 19.3 13.8 115.8 67.7 57.3 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.8 7.9 90.8 68.4 51.7 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.4 19.3 11.6 125.2 75.2 59.3 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.2 15.9 10.9 122.7 70.5 57.4 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.7 26.7 13.5 124.1 70.4 56.5 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.3 14.8 9.4 101.2 69.2 55.6 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.1 17.6 6.2 96.1 68.1 52.1 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.5 9.0 97.4 66.7 55.1 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.0 11.5 7.4 88.9 66.7 53.3 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.3 25.1 15.3 122.1 69.0 57.5 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.0 7.9 93.5 67.8 55.3 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------