***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 21.4 12.1 110.6 69.2 49.3 0.7 5.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.6 10.2 98.5 67.0 50.3 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.9 14.4 12.0 104.8 67.3 47.1 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.4 12.7 11.7 112.6 70.7 48.4 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.2 15.1 12.6 122.9 71.8 51.5 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.9 9.9 11.8 96.8 63.9 45.7 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.6 11.2 9.6 90.3 65.5 49.1 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.0 15.8 12.1 102.5 64.6 46.5 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.3 13.2 114.3 69.4 49.0 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.9 16.0 13.5 109.4 66.4 47.5 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.1 15.7 11.3 113.5 71.1 49.4 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.6 11.7 10.0 106.0 67.8 47.2 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 14.9 11.1 117.8 75.3 54.0 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.5 29.3 16.0 115.3 70.4 50.9 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.3 4.6 8.8 97.1 66.7 47.6 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.6 13.3 10.6 111.2 72.3 50.6 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 15.1 10.7 96.5 66.1 50.4 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 19.8 15.5 107.6 63.2 47.7 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 20.1 11.0 103.0 68.5 50.1 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.3 14.4 14.5 99.4 59.4 47.3 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 1.3 19.2 11.9 104.9 68.6 46.2 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.6 12.4 12.2 103.1 69.4 51.3 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.0 17.4 12.1 107.3 69.2 48.9 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 18.6 15.1 114.3 67.3 49.9 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.7 13.9 13.6 118.7 70.5 52.7 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 10.1 8.5 92.5 64.6 44.6 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.4 20.8 13.4 113.9 69.3 51.0 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.7 10.1 10.0 104.9 69.7 48.4 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.5 30.8 16.2 105.0 62.5 48.1 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.4 11.8 10.5 100.3 67.9 48.8 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------