***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 0.8 0.9 2.9 17.5 33.0 25.3 0.9 3.1 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 1.1 1.4 2.9 18.4 35.1 27.0 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 1.4 0.5 2.9 17.3 33.4 25.9 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 1.2 0.6 2.9 17.5 30.5 24.0 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 0.5 0.0 2.5 15.1 31.9 25.4 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 1.4 1.2 4.1 26.3 33.5 27.4 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.4 2.0 3.1 19.6 36.4 26.8 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 3.2 3.0 3.8 19.5 29.5 25.4 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 0.6 0.2 3.1 18.4 33.4 27.1 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 1.5 0.3 3.9 19.0 31.1 25.9 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 0.7 0.1 2.4 14.3 31.8 25.6 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 0.6 0.0 2.5 16.2 30.2 24.6 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 0.5 0.2 1.8 13.0 28.9 24.8 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.7 1.8 4.5 22.5 32.4 27.2 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.8 18.6 38.6 25.1 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.3 2.3 15.6 29.8 24.2 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.8 3.5 23.4 36.8 28.3 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 1.9 1.5 4.7 21.9 28.7 25.1 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 1.5 2.5 3.2 19.6 35.1 27.7 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 1.8 0.9 5.4 26.0 30.7 27.4 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.7 0.9 3.1 18.6 33.2 27.3 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.6 4.3 3.1 19.6 36.0 27.3 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.7 1.4 3.4 20.4 35.9 28.6 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 2.6 0.8 3.6 19.0 31.8 25.7 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 2.7 0.2 2.8 15.8 32.2 25.0 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 1.6 2.3 2.0 17.4 37.2 26.9 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 1.7 2.8 3.0 17.1 32.1 24.5 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.3 2.3 3.0 18.7 34.6 24.6 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 2.7 5.6 4.6 21.9 28.3 25.2 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 1.8 3.5 2.9 18.2 36.4 26.6 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------