***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 30.4 30.3 30.9 1.2 73.4 68.6 28.5 29.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 30.3 30.1 31.0 1.2 74.2 69.2 28.0 29.2 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.1 31.3 1.4 74.7 69.9 28.0 29.3 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 23.5 24.3 29.3 2.0 83.2 79.1 22.1 22.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.2 29.5 1.3 75.5 70.7 29.1 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 29.7 29.9 26.8 1.2 76.5 71.8 27.2 28.9 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.7 29.8 30.7 1.0 72.9 67.3 27.9 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.6 18.7 27.3 0.9 69.7 65.2 17.4 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.4 30.7 30.1 1.6 77.2 73.0 28.3 29.2 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 30.3 30.8 28.3 1.4 76.5 70.9 28.2 29.0 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 30.6 30.8 29.5 1.1 72.4 67.1 28.3 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 29.7 29.7 28.8 0.8 68.1 64.2 27.9 28.6 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 31.0 30.9 28.6 0.8 66.8 64.4 28.5 30.1 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 29.8 29.5 28.7 0.7 65.6 62.4 28.0 28.7 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.5 31.1 1.7 78.8 75.9 29.3 30.2 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.8 31.8 29.2 1.2 74.0 69.1 29.2 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.6 29.8 30.8 1.4 77.3 71.6 27.4 28.4 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.3 27.1 1.1 73.8 68.1 27.3 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 29.8 29.7 31.2 1.3 74.1 69.4 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 25.1 25.3 24.6 0.8 69.9 64.5 23.5 24.0 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.5 30.6 1.3 74.7 70.4 28.0 29.3 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.4 30.7 1.5 77.2 71.8 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 29.8 29.6 31.1 1.2 71.0 67.5 27.8 28.8 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 29.8 29.2 29.0 1.0 70.4 66.5 27.6 28.6 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.7 30.6 29.4 1.2 74.2 69.4 28.5 29.4 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 30.4 30.2 28.4 0.7 64.5 63.3 28.3 29.8 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.2 30.0 1.1 73.8 68.6 27.7 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.9 30.0 1.9 81.6 78.2 29.2 30.2 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.5 24.8 26.0 1.0 73.0 66.7 22.1 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 30.1 30.0 31.0 1.2 72.1 68.2 27.8 29.1 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------